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1. chinaXiv:201709.00120 [pdf]

贝叶斯因子及其在JASP中的实现

胡传鹏; 孔祥祯; Eric-Jan Wagenmakers; Alexander Ly; 彭凯平
Subjects: Psychology >> Statistics in Psychology

统计推断在科学研究中起到关键作用,然而当前科研中最常用的经典统计方法——零假设检验(Null hypothesis significance test, NHST)却因难以理解而被部分研究者误用或滥用。有研究者提出使用贝叶斯因子(Bayes factor)作为一种替代和(或)补充的统计方法。贝叶斯因子是贝叶斯统计中用来进行模型比较和假设检验的重要方法,其可以解读为对零假设H0或者备择假设H1的支持程度。其与NHST相比有如下优势:同时考虑H0和H1并可以用来支持H0、不“严重”地倾向于反对H0、可以监控证据强度的变化以及不受抽样计划的影响。目前,贝叶斯因子能够很便捷地通过开放的统计软件JASP实现,本文以贝叶斯t检验进行示范。贝叶斯因子的使用对心理学研究者来说具有重要的意义,但使用时需要注意先验分布选择的合理性以及保持数据分析过程的透明与公开。

submitted time 2018-05-08 Cooperative journals:《心理科学进展》 Hits122547Downloads13315 Comment 0

2. chinaXiv:202003.00003 [pdf]

COVID-19 outbreak increased risk of schizophrenia in aged adults

Hu, Wei; Su, Li; Qiao, Juan; Zhu, Jing; Zhou, Yi
Subjects: Psychology >> Clinical and Counseling Psychology
Subjects: Medicine, Pharmacy >> Preventive Medicine and Hygienics

We noticed an unusual increase of first-time patients with schizophrenia (F20) in January 2020 since the outbreak of COVID-19. The aim of this retrospective study is to validate this observation and find potential risk factors, if applicable. A total number of 13,783 records from outpatients in January 2020 were investigated thoroughly. Comparisons between incidence of schizophrenia in outpatients in January 2020 and similar periods of 2017-2019 were made to minimize seasonal influence. Relationship of incidence of schizophrenia and COVID-19 infections in China was calculated. Limited personal information (age, gender, approximate residence) was analyzed to find risk factors.After excluding seasonal factors such as Spring festival, a positive relationship between incidence of schizophrenia in first-time patients and countrywide epidemic situation was found. Statistical results further showed a significant increase of median age from 39 to 50 for first-time patients diagnosed with schizophrenia which is unusual. Meanwhile, a slight but not significant change was found in distribution of gender and approximate residence (urban/suburb). Our data supported that COVID-19 outbreak increased risk of schizophrenia in aged adults which is consistent with the fact that COVID-19 is more lethal to elders. We strongly appeal that public healthcare in countries either with or without infected patients should prepare in advance for potential risks in public mental health.

submitted time 2020-02-29 Hits46120Downloads7860 Comment 0

3. chinaXiv:202005.00044 [pdf]

Lasso回归:从解释到预测

张沥今; 魏夏琰; 陆嘉琦; 潘俊豪
Subjects: Psychology >> Statistics in Psychology

传统的最小二乘回归法关注于对当前数据集的准确估计,容易导致模型的过拟合,影响模型结论的可重复性。随着方法学领域的发展,涌现出的新兴统计工具可以弥补传统方法的局限,从过度关注回归系数值的解释转向提升研究结果的预测能力也愈加成为心理学领域重要的发展趋势。Lasso方法通过在模型估计中引入惩罚项的方式,可以获得更高的预测准确度和模型概化能力,同时也可以有效地处理过拟合和多重共线性问题,有助于心理学理论的构建和完善。

submitted time 2020-05-14 Cooperative journals:《心理科学进展》 Hits10069Downloads7748 Comment 0

4. chinaXiv:201802.00674 [pdf]

金庸小说人物的大五人格—基于文心系统的15部金庸小说分析

崔馨月; 郑苑仪; 王贝依; 郭荣慧; 丁照云; 朱廷劭
Subjects: Psychology >> Personality Psychology

[目的]从心理学的角度全面分析金庸小说人物人格与创作阶段、性别之间的关系。[方法]本文通过创作阶段对金庸15部小说进行划分,采用基于数据挖掘的文学智能分析方法,通过中文心理分析系统对人物对话进行处理,得到人物的大五人格预测分数。[结果] 女性人物的神经质倾向高于男性人物;创作阶段影响小说人物的尽责性、外向性倾向。[局限]仅仅对小说中的人物进行了分析,没有和金庸本人生平经历和创作时代特点相结合。[结论]本文从心理学人格理论出发探讨金庸小说的人物描写特点,丰富了“金学”的研究成果,为研究金庸的人物刻画风格与偏好提供了新的视角。

submitted time 2018-02-12 Hits13637Downloads7216 Comment 0

5. chinaXiv:201706.00761 [pdf]

神经科学偏见效应:可重复性及其心理机制的探索

殷继兴; 胡传鹏
Subjects: Psychology >> Legality Psychology
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology

神经科学的发展对其他学科以及社会产生了重要的影响。虽然神经科学方法与行为研究方法都是探索人类心理与行为的有效手段并各有所长,但神经科学的研究结果却可能引起人们过度的解读和信任。研究者发现,当某一结论使用神经科学结果作为证据时,比使用行为科学结果或者心理生理学指标作为证据时更加让人信服,即使神经科学结果与该结论之间毫无关系,这种现象被称为神经科学偏见(neuroscience bias)。通过系统回顾近年来关于神经科学偏见的研究,我们发现:(1)虽然神经科学偏见存在可重复性的争论,但该效应确实存在;(2)神经科学偏见的产生可能是因为个体倾向于还原论的解释(即使用低层次、简单的机制来解释更高层次上的现象)及心理本质主义的影响(即人们认为心理与行为的本质是神经活动)。神经科学偏见反映了公众对科学结果解读的偏见,未来研究需要探讨这种偏见的心理机制,从而引导科学结果的正确解读和运用。

submitted time 2019-11-05 Cooperative journals:《心理科学进展》 Hits99099Downloads6710 Comment 0

6. chinaXiv:201812.00865 [pdf]

贝叶斯结构方程模型及其研究现状

张沥今; 陆嘉琦; 魏夏琰; 潘俊豪
Subjects: Psychology >> Statistics in Psychology

在心理学研究中结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling, SEM)被广泛用于检验潜变量间的因果效应,其估计方法有频率学方法(如,极大似然估计)和贝叶斯方法两类。近年来由于贝叶斯统计的流行及其在结构方程建模中易于处理小样本、缺失数据及复杂模型等方面的优势,贝叶斯结构方程模型发展迅速,但其在国内心理学领域的应用不足。本文主要介绍了贝叶斯结构方程模型的方法基础和优良特性,及几类常用的贝叶斯结构方程模型及其应用现状,旨在为应用研究者介绍新的研究工具。

submitted time 2018-12-27 Cooperative journals:《心理科学进展》 Hits18236Downloads5812 Comment 0

7. chinaXiv:201809.00177 [pdf]

开放式荟萃分析的规范化报告

刘宇; 陈树铨; 樊富珉; 邸新; 范会勇; 封春亮; 郭双双; 甘怡群; 李会杰; 吕小康; 任志洪; 徐鹏飞; 袁博; 左西年; 胡传鹏
Comment:

正式版本请引用:

刘宇, 陈树铨, 樊富珉, 等. 开放式荟萃分析的规范化报告. 中国科学: 生命科学, 2021, 51: 764–778

Liu Y, Chen S Q, Fan F M, et al. A standardized checklist on meta-analysis reporting in the open science era (in Chinese). Sci Sin Vitae, 2021, 51: 764–778, doi: 10.1360/SSV-2021-0009


Subjects: Psychology >> Statistics in Psychology

荟萃分析(又称元分析)以量化方式综合实证研究结果,是积累整合证据并推进基础与应用研究的重要工具。在开放式科学这种新型研究实践下,荟萃分析是整合开放数据、进行科学推断的重要手段。但荟萃分析的过程繁复、方法多样,其执行上的严谨性对荟萃分析质量影响较大,因此其报告的透明性和开放性对其结果的可重复性尤为重要。为了解中文荟萃分析报告规范性的现状,让更多研究者了解荟萃分析报告的规范性与透明性,提升荟萃分析报告的质量,本文以国际学界广泛使用的系统综述和荟萃分析优先报告条目(PRISMA)和开放式科学理念为基础,结合基于效应量的荟萃分析报告特点,拟定出荟萃分析报告的中文版清单,并以心理学中的荟萃分析为例,对近五年国内发表的68篇中文荟萃分析的方法和结果部分进行回顾。基于结果,我们建议荟萃分析报告需要在以下方面进一步加强其报告的开放性与透明性:文献搜索的时间及限制、研究筛选和数据收集过程的细节、文章筛选的流程图、效应量转换的细节、单个研究偏倚状况的评估等。本文的荟萃分析报告清单为开放式荟萃分析提供了较为全面的清单,为未来荟萃分析研究提供参考规范。

submitted time 2022-07-30 Hits59223Downloads5695 Comment 0

8. chinaXiv:201712.00001 [pdf]

孤独症脑自发活动动态性及其整合的异常机制

鲁彬; 陈骁; 李乐; 沈杨千; 陈宁轩; 梅婷; 周会霞; 刘靖; 严超赣
Subjects: Psychology >> Medical Psychology
Subjects: Biology >> Neurobiology

孤独症谱系障碍(autism spectrum disorder, ASD)是一种病因未明,发病率较高的神经发育疾病。目前大多数静息态功能磁共振成像(resting-state fMRI, R-fMRI)研究仅考察了ASD患者脑活动的静态特征,忽视了动态特征。近期研究发现,不同R-fMRI局部指标的动态性之间存在一致性。本研究基于ASD公开数据库,使用滑动时间窗方法系统计算了480名ASD患者和539名健康对照(typical control, TC)被试的主流R-fMRI局部指标的动态性及R-fMRI局部指标之间的一致性动态特征,并考察了这些指标与ASD行为指标之间的关系。我们发现ASD患者在外侧额叶呈现出动态性显著升高,该现象在低频振幅(amplitude of low-frequency fluctuations, ALFF)和度中心性(degree centrality, DC)的动态性中都有体现。我们也发现ALFF、DC和局部一致性(regional homogeneity, ReHo)的动态性在视觉相关脑区,如梭状回、距状沟和舌回呈现下降。在进一步考察了这些指标之间的一致性动态特征后,发现ASD患者的一致性动态特征显著低于TC组被试,表现出显著下降的功能整合能力。我们的结果表明ASD患者存在着脑自发活动动态性及其整合的异常。

submitted time 2018-04-02 Hits31649Downloads5561 Comment 0

9. chinaXiv:202003.00005 [pdf]

Psychological responses to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak

Zheng JIN; Kaibin ZHAO; Yanyu XIA; Ruijun CHEN; Huan YU; Timothy TAMUNANG TAMUTANA1; Jeffrey SHERMAN; Christina BERMEITINGER; Pamela BAESS
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected more than 90,000 people in at least 69 countries by Feb 29, 2020. Medical interest in COVID-19 has been considerable. Mental health issues that coincide with the epidemics are rarely examined. There is a strong need for public health officials to consider how psychological effects vary at each phase of a crisis and how they relate to people to better support them in these shifting states of mind. The present study examines temporal relationships among behavioral and emotional responses towards COVID-19 and attitudinal responses to crisis management. 846 adults were invited to complete a set of Internet-based questionnaires at two time points with a range of 14 to 18 days’ intervals covered by the ascending phase of the outbreak. At the baseline assessment 788 adults completed the questionnaires. At the Wave 2 survey, 318 adults from Wave 1 were retained. Results from cross-lagged models demonstrated reciprocal negative associations between anxiety and crisis management appraise. In addition, the higher evaluation of crisis management in the initial period of outbreak predicted adoption of preventive behaviors and susceptibility to emotional contagion to a greater extend in a later period. Susceptibility to emotional contagion also positively predicted preventive behaviors taken. Furthermore, multiple group structural equation modeling revealed that evaluation of crisis management is more likely to affect the susceptibility to emotional contagion of people on the frontline of the outbreak (i.e., Wuhan) compared to people living in moderate risk areas (i.e., Outside of Hubei). These data provide experimental evidence regarding mental health during the COVID-19 outbreak, and over the course of a pandemic, which will direct governments and health authorities during disease outbreaks through their attempts to communicate with the public.

submitted time 2020-03-04 Hits24267Downloads5558 Comment 0

10. chinaXiv:201904.00092 [pdf]

反驳文本对患方信任和道德判断的影响与机制

吕小康; 付春野; 汪新建
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology

采用反驳文本范式对患方进行知识修正,提升患方对医方的信任和道德判断。预实验编制反驳文本并验证其有效性,实验1验证反驳文本可以显著提高患方的对医信任和道德判断,并发现医疗结果是影响患方信任和对医道德判断的重要因素。实验2和实验3探究了反驳文本有效性的作用机制及适用普遍性,发现不确定性容忍度和宽容度在反驳文本和患方信任及道德判断之间呈链式中介作用,且反驳文本可脱离医学情境提升普遍患方信任。

submitted time 2019-09-05 Cooperative journals:《心理学报》 Hits24495Downloads5445 Comment 0

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