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Seeking forward, looking forward: A replication and generalization of the Future Orientation Index based on Baidu Index

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摘要: Preis, Moat, Stanley, and Bishop (2012) introduced the Future Orientation Index (FOI) via Google Trends to gauge a country’s future orientation, measuring how much individuals prioritize the future in their thoughts and actions. Their research found that a higher FOI, marked by greater search interest in the upcoming year compared to the past, correlated with elevated economic success, indicated by higher per capita GDP. Despite its widespread use in cross-cultural studies, due to the evolving nature of the Internet in the past decade, it remains uncertain whether the FOI can still reliably measure future orientation. Our study aimed to replicate and extend correlations between FOI and key development indicators, such as GDP and the Human Development Index (HDI), across countries with different dominant search engines (from Google to Baidu), across time periods (from 2012 to 2021), and across levels (inter-country to intra-country and individual). Our results successfully replicated the findings from Preis et al. (2012): the Baidu-based FOI consistently demonstrated a positive correlation with province-level GDP (r = .719 ~ .860, ps < .001, BF10 > 100) and HDI (r = .635 ~ .867, ps < .001, BF10 > 100) from 2012 to 2021 in China. However, for exploratory generalization, the FOI did not predict individual-level patience (β = -0.038, p = .402). Our findings, alongside the open dataset of the Baidu-based FOI, provide an easily accessible index and a practical example to investigate intra-cultural differences in future orientation within China. Furthermore, our results underscore two prerequisites for utilizing the FOI as a measure of future orientation in future research: 1) Choose a locally dominant search engine and unambiguous keywords to calculate the FOI, and 2) Apply the FOI within a group-level context rather than an individual-level one.

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[V1] 2023-08-18 15:11:51 ChinaXiv:202308.00206V1 下载全文
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  • 运营单位: 中国科学院文献情报中心
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