Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： Individuals, enterprises and countries need to make decisions involving different time nodes in real life. Such decisions are commonly measured by "intertemporal preference" in the field of behavioral decision-making. Actually, the most important and crucial kind of intertemporal decision making relevant to survival and development are intertemporal choice with double-dated mix outcomes. However, existing intertemporal preferences measure by paradigms with pure gain outcomes was found to be poor predictors of far-sighted behavior in real life. Besides, mature theoretical models of intertemporal choice could not satisfactorily explain people's real intertemporal preferences. To better describe and explain people's intertemporal preferences with double-dated mixed outcomes, the present project intends to: 1) synthesize indicators of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes by using two different logics, providing predictive indicators for model comparison; 2) develop a new ecological paradigm of measuring intertemporal choice with double-dated outcomes, aiming to provide a more ecological and predictive measurement for the development of following research; 3) adopt the Mouselab and eye-tracking technique to test which model could more satisfactorily explain intertemporal preference with double-dated outcomes, the utility-based model or the attribute-based model.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： Humans are facing an unprecedented historical crisis and challenge. To identify the strategies that we can use to cope with historical crisis and challenge, we should investigate two well-studied strategies: “slow strategy, ” which is essentially an investment in the future, and “fast strategy” or “live fast, die young.” According to “The Ant and the Grasshopper, ” Aesop’s fable, which is under the pretext of intertemporal choice of social insects, the “slow” rather than the “fast” strategy is recommended for those who want to survive the environmental crisis. Intertemporal choice requires tradeoffs among outcomes whose effects occur at different times. In the commonly accepted language of intertemporal choice, the Ant, whose choice is the “larger but later” (LL) option, is more likely to survive the harsh winter than the Grasshopper, whose choice is the “smaller but sooner” (SS) option. To determine the optimal intertemporal choice strategy that can help us to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, we included 26, 355 participants from 18 Asian, African, European, American, and Oceanian countries in the present study. We investigated the participants’ preferences in intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, evaluated the degree of change in their intertemporal choice by differentiating the common currency in peacetime and epidemic time (i.e., two kinds of change indicators used for differentiating currencies and stages, respectively). We then asked them to rate their self-rated surviving achievement in the fight against COVID-19. Considering that individuals’ surviving achievements were affected by individual- and religious-level factors, we analyzed all data by using multilevel linear analysis to reflect the data’s hierarchical structure. After considering individual differences in personal factors and religious factors, we constructed two-level models to explore the effects of the change in intertemporal choice on self-rated surviving achievement, and measured the moderating role of cultural orientation in terms of Hofstede’s six culture dimensions. The findings of the cross-national survey revealed that Change Indicator 1 (∆ currency) and Change Indicator 2 (∆ stage) of Chinese/Singaporeans could jointly predict their self-rated surviving achievement. Meanwhile, only Change Indicator 2 (∆ stage) alone could predict the self-rated surviving achievement of people in the cultural circle that included the India, Malaysia, Philippines, and Nigeria. Neither Change Indicator 1 (∆ currency) nor Change Indicator 2 (∆ stage) of the people in other cultures could significantly predict their self-rated surviving achievement. On the basis of the gist of The Book of Change and the resulting findings, we suggested that 1) how you differentially (flexibly) made an intertemporal choice in peacetime and epidemic time would reflect the extent to which you would survive the war against COVID-19. In addition, 2) the mindset of change might shape the competitive advantage of a nation, such as China, in response to the historical crisis. The closer the cultural distance of a country or nation from China, the greater the possibility of benefitting from a similar competitive advantage. It is our hope that our findings would contribute to answer the question of what are “Psychological Characteristics and Behaviors of Chinese People in Response to Historical Crisis?”
Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Cognitive Psychology submitted time 2023-02-04
Abstract： Individuals, enterprises and countries need to make decisions involving different time nodes in real life. Such decisions are commonly measured by "intertemporal preference" in the field of behavioral decision-making. Actually, the most important and crucial kind of intertemporal decision making relevant to survival and development are intertemporal choice with double-dated mix outcomes. However, existing intertemporal preferences measure by paradigms with pure gain outcomes was found to be poor predictors of far-sighted behavior in real life. Besides, mature theoretical models of intertemporal choice could not satisfactorily explain people's real intertemporal preferences. To better describe and explain people's intertemporal preferences with double-dated mixed outcomes, the present project intends to: 1) synthesize indicators of intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes by using two different logics, providing predictive indicators for model comparison; 2) develop a new ecological paradigm of measuring intertemporal choice with double-dated outcomes, aiming to provide a more ecological and predictive measurement for the development of following research; 3) adopt the Mouselab and eye-tracking technique to test which model could more satisfactorily explain intertemporal preference with double-dated outcomes, the utility comparison model or the attribute-comparison model.
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2021-03-25
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Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2021-03-02
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Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2020-06-23
Abstract： According to the positive temporal discounting theory and our relevant observations, when faced with future losses, people should, and do, prefer delayed negative events (e.g., deferring paying taxes, debts, or tickets), which can lead to substantial individual and societal costs. However, a counterexample has been identified and it appears to depart from the prediction of positive temporal discounting when faced with negative events. This study proposed and investigated the novel free from care account for the reverse preference. Results of five laboratory and field studies showed that students preferred an immediate negative event (i.e., an English oral exam) when “something tying one up”was imposed, in which coping with a distraction induced by such a situation could play a mediating role. In particular, the addition of“something tying one up” was found to be an effective behavioral nudge in terms of reliability and reproducibility and should be simple for potential users to follow. Specifically, the association between being tied up and undergoing a negative event immediately in the present studies mirrored the association between outgroup threat and intergroup cooperation in the Robbers Cave experiment.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Cognitive Psychology submitted time 2019-03-25
Abstract： Choices between options represented in a multidimensional space, in which each dimension signifies a distinct attribute describing the objects, are presumably guided by the principle of value maximization (Luce, 1959). However, the current study assumes that in real-world setting, those who are able to imagine things that do not actually exist could modify the multidimensional space by self-generating an unoffered but fictional dimension. We define the utility (Uv) assigned by the decision makers to the options on the offered/given dimension as value (v[x]) and the utility (Uw) on the self-generated/ fictional dimension as worth (w[xc]). Our series of experiments demonstrated that an option with a greater value established strictly on that given set of dimensions might not necessarily be chosen (which contradicted the principle of value maximization). Such choosing option with less value (i.e., giving away the bigger pear) behavior can be described and explained by the “worth-based choice” approach as people behave to select the option with the highest worth rather than that with the highest value. We are optimistic that the resulting findings will facilitate our understanding of the beauty of such “one step further” choice and assist us in understanding the following: the ability to further generate a fictional dimension, to assign a delayed utility (worth) to the options on the fictional dimension, and to make a worth-based choice, could eventually be taken as the operational definition to measure the degree of “fiction-generating ability” as proposed by Harari (2014). "
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2018-03-29
Abstract：在生活中，我们时常会选取或接受一个导致明显损失的选项（如，无酬加班）。主流决策理论不会将此选择预测或解释为我们主动做出的行为选择，反倒是中国古语“吃亏是福”这一信条不仅对此进行了阐释，而且还大力推崇这类行为。为了探索“吃亏是福”信条起作用的机制，我们自创了一个基于成功人士吃亏轶事的量表，用于测量“吃亏似然性”。考虑到“福”可分为“主观”与“客观”之福；“报”可分为“现报”与“后报”，我们发现（1）当下吃亏似然性分数越高的人，当下拥有的社会经济地位指数（SEI）越高、主观幸福感（SWB）越强；（2）真金白银的当前社会经济地位指数（SEI）既可以被当下的吃亏似然性所预测，也可以被想象的多年前吃亏似然性所预测（即以前吃的亏能预测现在受的福），且想象以前吃亏的年代越久远，预测的效果越佳。我们的发现提示“吃亏是福”不是传说而是现实。
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
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