Your conditions: 孙海龙
  • 为什么信息超载损害决策?基于有限认知资源的解释

    Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: Information overload occurs when the current information processing requirements exceed information processing capacities. Information overload can impair the quality of decisions, prolong decision-making time, reduce decision satisfaction, and cause chronic stress. The attentional resources theory and limited working memory capacity can be used to explain why information overload damages decisions. Attention resources for filtering and managing information are consumed quickly under information overload and the allocation and utilization of attention resources can be disrupted by irrelevant information, which causes the efficiency of information processing to be reduced. Moreover, the available working memory for information processing can't process massive amounts of information in a limited time. As a result, decision performance is damaged by information overload. Future research should further explore the information processing model under information overload, the eye movement empowerment method allows us to examine attention resource usage under information overload. A dynamic coupling model of conscious and unconscious thought is required to provide a method to guide individuals to alleviate information overload. Additionally, intelligent agents and interactive memory systems should be investigated to find their potential roles in alleviating information overload within larger organizations.

  • 互联网连接性降低自主性的机制与后效

    Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: The development of the Internet era has led to the three major changes: the interconnectedness of all things, the scarcity of time, and the exhaustion of emotions. A key concept that connects these three growing trends is autonomy. When employees fail to control their own time at work, they experience the scarcity of time and emotional exhaustion. Previous research has found that constant Internet connectivity increases an individual’s autonomy in general scenarios. However, when employees are in a state of unbalanced power-dependency, constant Internet connectivity might decrease autonomy. Based on the power-dependency theory, follower’s asymmetric dependence and paternalistic authoritarian leadership are required in these unbalanced relationships. This project aims at exploring from a new perspective when and why constant Internet connectivity reduces autonomy and what the corresponding consequences are. The theoretical model challenges the prevailing notion that Internet connectivity increases autonomy, and it constructs a new theoretical basis for understanding employees’ autonomy in the context of Internet connectivity.

  • 海量信息如何影响跨期决策?基于注意资源的理论视角

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: On the one hand, a large amount of information is helpful to the construction of the future and it can help individuals make far-sighted decisions. On the other hand, as the amount of information increases, the ambiguity and uncertainty of the future also increases, which may make individuals prefer smaller but sooner reward. So, how does a huge amount of information affect intertemporal decision making? It is an important scientific question that has not been well addressed.Although there may be multiple cognitive abilities that play different roles in the process of massive information influencing intertemporal decisions, we believe that attention is the most important one. Mainly based on the following considerations: (1) The cost of processing information is attentional resources. (2) Selectivity of Attention determines what information is used for decision making. (3) The weight of attention given to different information may determine the decision outcome. Studies have shown that individuals' differences in intertemporal decision-making are mainly due to variance in attention. (4) There is important practical value in understanding how variance of attention affect intertemporal decision-making. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the question that how massive information influence intertemporal decision-making through attentional resources.Firstly, we will explore how massive information can reduce prospection about the future. Because too much information makes information that are negative, concrete, and salient are more likely to capture a person's attention. This results in too little attentional resources left for future relevant events. Secondly, we will explore how the reduction of prospection lead to a preference for the short-term option in intertemporal decision-making. Specifically, when individuals' attention is drawn to immediate information, they simulate future events unclearly, and predict a lower likelihood of receiving long-term rewards. Therefore, people's intention to achieve long-term goals will be reduced and they are reluctant to plan for long-term goals. Changes in the four prospection patterns will lead to a reduced weighting of future options and therefore a preference for near-term options in intertemporal choice. Thirdly, long-term orientation moderates the effect of massive information on intertemporal decision-making. Individuals with long-term orientation pay more attention to the value related to long-term goals and reduce the attention bias to short-term related information. Thus, long-term orientation buffers the adverse effect of massive information on intertemporal decision-making. And last but not least, we attempt to facilitate individuals' far-sighted intertemporal decision-making in a massive information environment by setting salience and defaults that could directing subjects' attention to focus on long-term values.Based on the theoretical perspective of attentional resources, this study proposes a theoretical framework that massive information affects intertemporal decision making by reducing prospection about the future. This is the first time to establish the relationship between massive information and intertemporal decision making directly. It reveals the cognitive process that massive information affects intertemporal decision making and helps us to deeply understand how people make intertemporal choice in the massive information environment. Consequently, our conclusions have important practical significance for both organizations and individuals to nudge farsighted decision by setting the environment to guide attention.

  • 多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: Multiple dated outcomes in intertemporal choice involves the tradeoff of two or more outcomes at multiple time points, which has become the focus of research on intertemporal choice. According to the characteristics of the multiple dated intertemporal choice, this paper reviews the decision effects of multi-dated outcome on intertemporal choice, including: hidden zero effect, symbolic effect, extra dated money effect, front-end amount effect and sequence effect from the two-outcome and the sequence outcomes. In addition, the theoretical models such as the sequence model and the trade-off model to explain the above decision effects are explained. Finally, the paper points out the future research direction: the follow-up research should strengthen the discussion on the field of mixed gain-loss intertemporal choice, and further explore the mechanism of multiple dated intertemporal choice process by using the decision-making process tracking technology.

  • 动机冲突影响混合跨期决策:趋近-回避动机理论视角

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: Many decisions that lead to neither pure gains nor losses require a trade-off between gains and losses over time. This kind of intertemporal choice featuring mixed gains and losses is increasingly common. Notably, such choices have important theoretical and practical value and have attracted increasing attention from researchers. Prior studies have usually employed a theoretical framework focused on intertemporal choice in the context of pure gains or losses, thereby failing to make use of any theoretical construction and exploration concerning the decision-making process that is suitable for mixed intertemporal choices.To answer the key question of "how does motivational conflict affect mixed intertemporal choice", this paper intends to explore the following specific research questions. (1) What kind of motivational conflict occurs in the context of mixed intertemporal choice? (2) How does motivational conflict affect individual decision preferences in the context of mixed intertemporal choice? (3) What is the mechanism underlying motivational conflict that affects individual decision-making preferences in the context of mixed intertemporal choice?For this purpose, we plan to explore the mechanism of motivation conflict underlying the decision-making process systematically by using both behavioural experiments and mouse-tracking techniques, and we expect to carry out three studies including six experiments in total. Specific details are as follows. (1) In Study 1, the relationship between the degree of motivation conflict and behavioural preferences in the context of such intertemporal choice is investigated. First, we initially propose using a within-subject experimental design to examine the relationship between decision-preference conflict and choice preference with respect to a mixed intertemporal choice step-preference paradigm. Simultaneously, a repeated measurement within-subject experimental design will be used to expand our research results pertaining to individual self-rated motivation conflict and to test the relationship between motivation conflict and mixed intertemporal choice in further detail. Study 1 will lay a paradigmatic foundation for decision-making research in subsequent Studies 2 and 3. (2) In Study 2, the degree of decision-making conflict will be manipulated by altering the relative differences in gains and losses with respect to endogenous factors as well as the resource limitations of exogenous factors. This approach is intended to verify the causal chain linking the degree of decision-making conflict to behavioural preference in further detail. (3) In Study 3, the decision-making process index and mouse tracking technology will be used to explore the process mechanism underlying the influence of mixed intertemporal choice conflict on behavioural preference. The degree of decision conflict will be measured by reference to the mouse trajectory index to reveal the process characteristics of decision conflict and the way in which this factor affects behavioural preference.In conclusion, this study will explore the dynamic decision-making process mechanism associated with a mixed intertemporal choice context of decision conflict from the perspective of motivation conflict and thereby contribute to research and theory construction concerning mixed intertemporal choice. On the one hand, a theoretical interpretation of the decision-making process mechanism that advances mixed intertemporal choice will be produced by exploring the impact of decision-making motivational conflicts on mixed intertemporal choice. On the other hand, we try to reveal the motivation underlying the choice preference rule in the context of mixed intertemporal choice based on the theoretical perspective of motivation conflict, including avoidance, which serves as a response to calls by previous researchers for the improvement of our understanding of mixed intertemporal choice. Moreover, this study will not only attempt to highlight the relationship between intermotivational conflict and choice preference in the context of mixed intertemporal choice but also to distinguish the factors that influence motivational conflict in the context of mixed intertemporal choice further by identifying them as either exogenous or endogenous factors. Specifically, this study will systematically manipulate exogenous factors and endogenous factors to enhance approach or avoidance motivation and subsequently change the degree of motivation conflict in an attempt to depict the causal chain associated with motivation conflict and mixed cross-period decision-making choice preference in full depth. By reference to the findings concerning the degree of decision conflict, the preference rule and the decision-making process in the context of mixed intertemporal choice, suggestions for the design of organizational management measures and the improvement of both individual and organizational welfare will be provided.

  • 概率估计的趋势效应及其对决策的影响机制——基于心理动量的视角

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》

    Abstract: Probability is an important indicator reflecting risk and uncertainty. Existing research focuses on how an individual evaluates the characteristics, antecedents, and underlying mechanisms of static probability. However, in reality, probability estimation is dynamic and therefore has a trend effect, which in turn influences decision-making. This paper describes two manifestations of the trend effect of probability estimation: (1) the tendency of the revised probability estimation—namely, the increased or decreased trend effect of probability estimation changing from one time point to another; and (2) the single-bound probability—namely, the estimated expression being higher or lower than the upper or lower bound of a certain probability interval. In addition, we indicate the trend effect’s impact on an individual’s judgments, decision-making behaviors, and irrational decision deviations. Based on the theoretical perspective of psychological momentum, we propose an integrated model to explore the internal mechanism of probability estimation’s trend effect. The model reveals probability estimation’s trend effect induces psychological momentum through initial triggering of psychological momentum-related stimuli, release of the catalysis via psychological simulating of the future trend, and formation of the psychological momentum perception experience. Also it illustrates the two major components of the perception experience of psychological momentum (perceived quality and perceived velocity). Further, the model includes analyses of the three conditions affecting the generated degree of psychological momentum (strength, frequency, and continuity) and the dynamic between psychological momentum and decision-making behavior. Future research can focus on three areas. (1) Probability estimation’s trend effect when there are multiple information sources. Most existing research emphasizes unilateral information sources when the direction of probability estimation’s trend effect is relatively clear. But there are often multiple sources of information in the real world; for example, if two experts estimate the probability of a future event at the same time, more complicated situations, including the recency effect and framing effect, need further exploration. (2) The interaction between dynamic trend effect and static probability estimation. Static probability research has shown individuals often overestimate the occurrence of low probability events and underestimate the occurrence of medium and high probability events. Thus, are the trend effects of dynamic probability estimation different for the different probability risks? Further, for the interval value of extremely low probability, whether adopting the unilateral probability statement can effectively suppress the deviation of the overestimation of the small probability? (3) The trend effect of revised probability estimation in risk communication. Probability estimation’s trend effect plays an essential role in risk communication. The trend effect produced by the revised probability estimation or unilateral probability expression from the communicating party affects the other party’s understanding and judgment. Compared with those of the narrow interval, what are the characteristics of the wide probability interval communicated? Will the difference between the roles of the two communicating parties affect the probability estimation? All these issues need further exploration.

  • “长计远虑”的助推效应:怀孕与环境跨期决策

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》

    Abstract: Environmental issues are currently of particular concern in the world. Thus, it is important to understand the processes that contribute to prudent long-term choices regarding the environment. To this end, it is important to study environmental intertemporal choice, especially the improvement of foresight in environmental time discounting. The present research combined questionnaire-based, lab-based and field studies to investigate whether “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” decreased time discounting in environmental intertemporal choice. Study 1 probed the link between pregnancy and environmental intertemporal choice. Study 2 aimed to replicate the results from Study 1 by controlling for the confounding variables of the physiological state of pregnancy in a lab experiment. In Study 3, a priming paradigm was developed to test this hypothesis. Participants were instructed to indicate their degree of support for specific environmental policies after the benefits of the policy were described. The test materials were the same in the experimental and control groups with the exception that an additional phrase was included in the experimental condition: “To leave our children with blue sky, green earth, clear water, and a beautiful home”. Building on Study 3, Study 4 employed a similar nudge-like intervention to investigate the effects of “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” on the extent to which participants support a federal environmental policy and donation incentive for charitable organizations. Study 1 indicated that pregnancy increased long-term thought in environmental intertemporal choice and decreased the temporal discounting rate through comparisons between pregnant and non-pregnant participants. Moreover, long-term thinking mediated the effect of pregnancy on the discounting rate in environmental intertemporal choice. Study 2 replicated the results of Study 1 regarding the links between the psychological priming of pregnancy and the discount rate in environmental intertemporal choice. The first two studies investigated whether natural pregnancy influenced the time discounting rate in environmental intertemporal choice. Based on these results, Study 3 tested the intervention hypothesis, which suggests that the subtle priming associated with the characteristics of pregnancy would influence the degree of support for long-term environmental policies. The results demonstrated that a simple prime that referred to “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” increased long-term thinking in intertemporal choice. Importantly, we produced similar nudging effects in Study 4 and showed that “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” increased the donation incentive towards a charity that aimed to improve the environment of China. The results from our four studies provide consistent evidence that “Foresight for the Future of Our Children” decreased myopic behaviour in environmental intertemporal choice. These results are crucial for the design of nudge interventions that improve the long-term interests of both individuals and collectives while persevering the freedom of individual choice. Furthermore, this research also sheds light on the theoretical attributions to underlying intertemporal models and the effects of the physiological state of pregnancy on choice.

  • 现在避害, 未来趋利:目标框架和时间距离交互影响疫苗说服有效性

    Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》

    Abstract: Vaccines are crucial for controlling deadly diseases, and how to persuade people to get vaccinated has become a hot topic in enhancing public health benefits. One way to increase the vaccination rate is to raise public awareness of the importance of vaccines through advertising. As an effective and cost-friendly approach, goal framing has been widely used in vaccine advertising. However, the literature has mixed findings about whether positive or negative goal framing is more effective in persuading people to get vaccinated. The present study aims to investigate how temporal distance (present vs. future) interacts with different types of goal framing (positive vs. negative) in persuading people to get the COVID-19 vaccine. We hypothesized that negative goal framing is more persuasive when the advertising focuses on present outcomes, while positive goal framing is more effective when combined with future-focused outcomes. We further hypothesized that the inner mechanism is the intertemporal asymmetry of approach and avoidance motivation. More specifically, the avoidance motivation induced by a negative frame is stronger in the present, while the approach motivation induced by a positive frame is stronger in the future. The perceived risk of COVID-19 moderated this effect. Four studies were conducted to examine our hypotheses. Study 1 was conducted to preliminarily investigate how goal framing and temporal distance jointly influence willingness to get the COVID-19 vaccine. The aim of Study 2 was to verify the mediating effect of approach and avoidance motivation in a different advertising setting, as well as to rule out the potential mediators of the construal level and positive/negative emotions. In Study 3, we further tested the mediators by manipulating participants’ approach and avoidance motivation. Study 4 was a quasi-experiment in which we recruited participants from areas with different levels of COVID-19 risk to test how perceived risk moderated the interaction effect of goal framing and temporal distance. The results showed that a negative goal frame was more persuasive when combined with present-focused advertising, while a positive goal frame was more effective when combined with future-focused advertising (Study 1, N = 363). Avoidance motivation mediated the relationship between the goal frame and vaccine uptake in the present context, while approach motivation mediated the relationship between the goal frame and vaccine uptake in the future context (Study 2, N = 292). The results in Study 3 (N = 347) revealed that approach motivation priming increases the persuasiveness of the present-positive frame, while avoidance motivation priming increases the persuasiveness of the future-negative frame. COVID-19 risk also had an impact on the relationship between goal framing and temporal distance on vaccine uptake. When the COVID-19 risk was high, the difference in vaccine uptake between present-positive and present-negative conditions disappeared, while the future-positive frame was still more persuasive than the future-negative frame (Study 4, N = 423). In conclusion, the present study found an interactive effect of goal framing and temporal distance in persuading people to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Avoidance/approach motivation mediates the relationship between goal framing and vaccine uptake in the present/future temporal context. The perceived COVID risk further moderated the interaction effect. The present study contributes to both the framing and approach- avoidance motivation literature and sheds light on future practices in persuading people to get the COVID vaccine and promoting the uptake of other vaccines.

  • The influence of motivation conflict on mixed loss-gain intertemporal choice: An approach-avoidance motivation perspective

    Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology submitted time 2022-07-04

    Abstract:

    Based on an approach-avoidance motivation conflict perspective, this proposal systematically explores the decision-making mechanism associated with mixed gain-loss intertemporal choice by using behavioural experiments and mouse tracking technology. In Study 1, the relationship between the degree of motivation conflict and behavioural preferences in the context of such intertemporal choice is investigated. In Study 2, both endogenous factors (the relative difference between the amount of gain and the amount of loss) and exogenous factors (limited external resources) are manipulated to reveal the causal chain linking the degree of motivation conflict to mixed intertemporal choice. In Study 3, mouse tracking technology is used to explore the mechanism by which motivation conflict associated with mixed intertemporal choice influences behavioural preferences. The results of these studies reveal the mechanism by which motivational conflict affects the mixed intertemporal choice process and can also provide a theoretical foundation for the design of relevant schemes in organizational management.

  • How Goal Framing and Temporal Distance Influence the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccine Persuasion

    Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology submitted time 2022-05-19

    Abstract:

    Vaccines are crucial for controlling deadly diseases, and how to persuade people to get vaccinated has become a hot topic in enhancing public health benefits. One way to increase the vaccination rate is to raise public awareness of the importance of vaccines through advertising. As an effective and cost-friendly approach, goal framing has been widely used in vaccine advertising. However, the literature has mixed findings about whether positive or negative goal framing is more effective in persuading people to get vaccinated. The present study aims to investigate how temporal distance (present vs. future) interacts with different types of goal framing (positive vs. negative) in persuading people to get the COVID-19 vaccine. We hypothesized that negative goal framing is more persuasive when the advertisingfocuses on present outcomes, while positive goal framing is more effective when combined with future-focused outcomes. We further hypothesized that the inner mechanism is the intertemporal asymmetry of approach and avoidance motivation. More specifically, the avoidance motivation induced by a negative frame is stronger in the present, while the approach motivation induced by a positive frame is stronger in the future. The perceived risk of COVID-19 moderated this effect.

    Four studies were conducted to examine our hypotheses. Study 1 was conducted to preliminarily investigate how goal framing and temporal distance jointly influence willingness to get the COVID-19 vaccine. The aim of Study 2 was to verify the mediating effect of approach and avoidance motivation in a different advertising setting, as well as to rule out the potential mediators of the construal level and positive/negative emotions. In Study 3, we further tested the mediators by manipulating participants’ approach and avoidance motivation. Study 4 was a quasi-experiment in which we recruited participants from areas with different levels of COVID-19 risk to test how perceived risk moderated the interaction effect of goal framing and temporal distance.

    The results showed that a negative goal frame was more persuasive when combined with present-focused advertising, while a positive goal frame was more effective when combined with future-focused advertising (Study 1, N = 363). Avoidance motivation mediated the relationship between the goal frame and vaccine uptake in the present context, while approach motivation mediated the relationship between the goal frame and vaccine uptake in the future context (Study 2, N = 292). The results in Study 3 (N = 347) revealed that approach motivation priming increases the persuasiveness of the present-positive frame, while avoidance motivation priming increases the persuasiveness of the future-negative frame. COVID-19 risk also had an impact on the relationship between goal framing and temporal distance on vaccine uptake. When the COVID-19 risk was high, the difference in vaccine uptake between present-positive and present-negative conditions disappeared, while the future-positive frame was still more persuasive than the future-negative frame (Study 4, N = 423).

    In conclusion, the present study found an interactive effect of goal framing and temporal distance in persuading people to get the COVID-19 vaccine. Avoidance/approach motivation mediates the relationship between goal framing and vaccine uptake in the present/future temporal context. The perceived COVID risk further moderated the interaction effect. The present study contributes to both the framing and approach-avoidance motivation literature and sheds light on future practices in persuading people to get the COVIDvaccine and promoting the uptake of other vaccines.

     

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  • Early departure, early revival: A“free from care”account of negative temporal discounting

    Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2020-06-23

    Abstract: According to the positive temporal discounting theory and our relevant observations, when faced with future losses, people should, and do, prefer delayed negative events (e.g., deferring paying taxes, debts, or tickets), which can lead to substantial individual and societal costs. However, a counterexample has been identified and it appears to depart from the prediction of positive temporal discounting when faced with negative events. This study proposed and investigated the novel free from care account for the reverse preference. Results of five laboratory and field studies showed that students preferred an immediate negative event (i.e., an English oral exam) when “something tying one up”was imposed, in which coping with a distraction induced by such a situation could play a mediating role. In particular, the addition of“something tying one up” was found to be an effective behavioral nudge in terms of reliability and reproducibility and should be simple for potential users to follow. Specifically, the association between being tied up and undergoing a negative event immediately in the present studies mirrored the association between outgroup threat and intergroup cooperation in the Robbers Cave experiment.

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