Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： The term “risk-domain specificity” refers to the domain-specific nature of risky decision making due to the presence of factors that are particular to a certain content domain. Based on classical risky decision making theories stemming from laws of expectation, risk-taking propensity is domain-general. On the other hand, substantial evidences from past studies indicate that risk-taking propensity is domain-specific. The literature on risk-domain specificity has witnessed considerable progress in terms of mechanisms, measurements, and independent variables. Theoretically, early mainstream mechanisms deconstructed risk behavior based on a risk-return framework, whereas recent studies have validated the mechanisms with new sets of evidence and explained risk-domain specificity from the perspectives of evolution, personality and motivation. In terms of measurements, Domain-specific Risk Taking Scale (DOSPERT), as a dominant scale, has been further validated in various cultures, content domains, and groups. In comparison, other scales based on different content domains have been proven to be consistent and valid. In terms of independent variables, the regularity of risk-domain specificity has been proposed from various perspectives, such as genetics, environment and individual differences. Future research may focus on content domain integration and theory validation in detailed content domains as well as exploring regularity and mechanisms of risk-domain specificity at an individual level.
Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： Public awareness of environmental issues and engagement in environmental protection has been greatly improved with the rapid economic development. As a result, the deployment of projects with potential impacts on environment and human societies faces substantial challenge from the public. To ensure the success of such projects, receiving only government approval and meeting legal and regulation requirements is no longer enough. Public acceptance becomes essential, that is to acquire a social licence to operate (SLO). Projects without the SLO can be faced with great risks and financial loss. Although having gained widespread attention in mining, chemical industries and other related fields, the concept of SLO has gained attention from psychologists quite recently. The present article reviews the origin and measurement of the concept of SLO, as well as the approaches to obtain and maintain a SLO. We further highlight the fundamental drivers of SLO and the implications for policy makers. Future directions are discussed to address the challenges regarding the measurement and acquisition of SLO.
Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： Depending on how closely it connects with environmental health, behavioral response as a result of air pollution can be classified into two types: direct behavior and social behavior (or spillover behavior). In this regard, this paper reviewed previous literature on how air pollution influences these two types of behaviors. Further, we summarized several mechanisms underlying these two behaviors. Specifically, the Theory of Planned Behavior and the Health Action Process Approach were proposed to model direct behavior; anxiety and ego depletion were proposed to predict social behavior. More comprehensive investigations into the behavioral mechanisms will benefit future designing of more effective measures against air pollution. Future researchers may consider adopting a longitudinal paradigm and conduct in-depth analyses of behavioral mechanisms, in order to improve individuals’ behaviors in response to risks.
Subjects: Psychology >> Developmental Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： Time preference for health is omnipresent and important at both individual and national levels. For a long time, research in this field has been limited to following inter-temporal choice models and methods in the traditional monetary domain of time preference studies. Given the domain-specificity of time preference in the health domain, these indiscriminately theoretical models led to inconsistent measures and results in the field. In the past few decades, researchers in this field have focused on the behavioral consequences of time preference for health. Most studies reported that lower temporal discount rates and higher future time perspectives are positively related to health protection behaviors and negatively related to health risk behaviors. Researchers also found that features of both decision-making objects and decision makers are key impact factors for time preference for health. Future studies should develop theoretical models and measurements that are more suitable to the time preferences for health domain, identify the relationship between healthy behaviors and time preference, and investigate the mechanism underlying the decision-making process. Future researchers should also explore interventions for health behaviors and their application to formulation of healthcare policies.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-28 Cooperative journals: 《心理科学进展》
Abstract： In recent years, the nudging method of default options has been increasingly used to improve public behavior and increase the public approval of social policies. Default option setting is a tool of choice architecture. It involves setting a pre-selected option that takes advantage of people’s inertia, subtly increasing the likelihood that decision-makers choose this default option. Defaults are commonly framed in the opt-in system (without any default) and opt-out system (target option as a default). The frequencies at which the target option is of the target option is chosen are considerably higher in the latter, which is known as the default effect. Although a great number of studies have shown the default effect in various scenarios, the effectiveness of default nudge has been questioned by scholars and the public nowadays. For example, there are a series of studies that show that default option settings are ineffective or even counterproductive in promoting public behavior. Given the dispute on the effectiveness of the default nudge method, the current study aims to systematically examine how effective defaults are and whether their effectiveness varies across culture (Eastern culture vs. Western culture), domains (money-related domain, health-related domain, and environment-related domain), behavioral motives (benefits self vs. benefits others; whether there is real financial consequence of choice), and experiment characteristics (type of dependent variables, time of publication, sample size, and type of experiment). We conducted a literature search and meta-analysis of 56 articles, covering 92 default studies (pooled n = 112, 212, range = 16 ~ 19992) that fitted our inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis revealed that opt-out defaults lead to more pre-selected decisions than opt-in defaults do (d = 0.59, t = 10.12, 95% CI = [0.47, 0.71], p < 0.001), indicating that default nudging has a considerable effect. Further analysis showed two factors that could partially explain when the defaults’ effectiveness varies. First, moderating analysis showed that cultural background moderated the effect of default nudging: the effect of opt-out system under Western culture performed better than that under Eastern culture (b = 0.44, 95% CI = [0.05, 0.84], p = 0.027). Second, the moderating analysis also revealed the moderating effect of consumer choice and health choice. The nudging effectiveness of the default option settings was relatively better in the field of consumer choice (b = 0.43, 95% CI = [0.15, 0.70], p = 0.002), also somewhat effective in the field of pro-environmental choice (b = -0.32, 95% CI = [-0.66, 0.02], p = 0.067), and weakest in the field of health domain (b = -0.32, 95% CI = [-0.42, 0.10], p = 0.233). Lately, the default effect was not influenced by motivational factors or experiment characteristics. In conclusion, the current work-integrated findings in previous default-related studies and answered the questions regarding how effective the defaults are and when their effectiveness varies. The present meta-analysis covered 21 more studies than previous analyses and 5 more studies based on the Asian samples. In the 92 studies included in this meta-analysis, most showed a positive effect of default nudge on people’s behavioral change, and only a few studies found no significant or negative effects. The total default effect in our analysis was slightly lower than the results reported by Jachimowicz et al. (2018), but it still showed a medium-sized effect, indicating that the default nudge is indeed effective in promoting behavioral changes. Our finding provides a new conclusion for the studies of the effectiveness of the default effect, and reveals the moderating effect of cultural background for the first time, which may help us to better understand whether the defaults are effective and when to use the defaults.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： The global challenge of organ shortage has grown severe in China because of its large population base. To explore the possible means of solving the serious gap caused by demand imbalance, this study attempts to draw lessons from psychological effects, such as default option effect and choice architecture to improve the overall rates of organ donation and number of organs donated. Specifically, we investigated the influence of the organ donation system and registry form design on organ donor registry participation by conducting three online surveys among college students in China. In Study 1, we compared the organ donation rate of people with a Chinese cultural background under the “opt-in” and “opt-out” systems. The results were consistent with those of foreign studies that the organ donation rate under the “opt-out” system was significantly higher than that under the “opt-in” system. To examine the optimal design of registry forms under these systems, Study 2 compared the organ donation rates under the organ donation registry forms of different countries/regions between these systems. In the “opt-in” system, we selected Japan, Texas (USA), and New York (USA), whereas we selected Cyprus and Wales in the “opt-out” system. The organ donation rates of countries/regions under the “opt-out” system did not show any significant differences although they were higher than those of countries/regions under the “opt-in” system. However, Japan (which uses the “rejection response mode” in its registry form) shows a higher organ donation rate than the other countries/regions under the “opt-in” system and even features the same level compared with the countries/regions under the “opt-out” system. To investigate the possible effect of the response mode on the organ donation registry form, we designed a “selection response mode” version of the registry form as the manipulated contrast of the “rejection response mode” and found that both the rate of willingness to donate and the number of donated organs were higher in the rejection response mode than those in the selection response mode. Study 3 mainly focuses on the number of donated organs. We manipulated the response mode and other possible factors in organ donation, namely, the influence on the appearance of donors and the presentation order of organs. Consistent with those of Study 2, the results of Study 3 indicated that using the rejection response mode in registry forms considerably boosted the number of donated organs. Moreover, presenting the organs with the lowest influence on the appearance of donors in an ascending order can reach the highest number of donated organs in rejection response modes. In sum, these results demonstrate that the “opt-out” system and response mode can effectively promote the organ donation behavior in China. Therefore, policymakers may consider the following suggestions to improve the organ donation rates in China: changing its current “opt-in” organ donation system to the “opt-out” system; or, under the current “opt-in” organ donation system, adopting the rejection response mode in registry forms and presenting the organs with the lowest influence on the appearance of donors first.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： As an editorial for Acta Psychologica Sinica’s special column, this paper provides a concise overview of the nudge concept and its progress. The necessity of the concept is analyzed, and the main methods and fields of application are summarized. The effects of the concept on the promotion of people’s health, wealth, and happiness are elucidated, and the related disputes are clarified. Several suggestions that may help researchers in carrying out nudge research are also derived. We briefly draw the outlines for several papers in this special column and discuss the outlook for how nudge research should begin in China with the goal of attracting psychologists to devote to nudge research.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： Risky choice (RC) and intertemporal choice (IC) are two types of common decisions that are vital to human’s everyday life. RC and IC share similarities regarding theoretical development, behavioral effects, and neural basis. One critical challenge is that, although previous studies have revealed that RC and IC involve similar cognitive processes, results are mixed regarding what the exact mechanism might be. The mainstream discounting model hypothesizes that both RC and IC follow a compensatory and alternative-based rule. However, other models suggest that RC and IC commonly involve non-compensatory and attribute-based processing. Moreover, prior studies primarily based their findings on outcome data and few have attempted to determine whether RC and IC shared a common decision process at the cognitive computational level. To fill this gap, the present study adopts a systematic approach to disentangle the exact mechanism of RC and IC. We considered two well-studied behavioral effects, namely, certainty effect of RC and immediacy effect of IC, respectively, and compared their underlying local and holistic process characteristics by using eye-tracking technique. Besides, we employed hierarchical Bayesian modeling to assess whether alternative- or attribute-based models better fit both RC and IC. We designed a 2×2 within-subject paradigm, with the choice task (RC vs. IC) and the construct of decision options (with vs. without certain/immediate option) as factors. Thirty-three postgraduate students participated in our study. As we were particularly interested in two pairs of decision rules, i.e., compensatory/non-compensatory rules and alternative-based/attribute-based rules, we included a series of decision attributes that reflected them, based on the local and holistic process characteristics derived from eye-movement data to test our hypotheses. Our entire set of analyses aimed to (1) determine whether the decision processes of RC and IC are similar and (2) identify the best computational model that is more suitable for both decisions. For the first aim, results show that RC and IC indeed share comparable decision processes, albeit having a few differences in other aspects. Specifically, RC and IC differ in process characteristics, such as complexity and holistic eye-movement dynamics, and IC is processed in a relatively more deliberate, deeper fashion than RC. However, they are similar in other characteristics, such as search direction, which is more relevant to making decisions. For the second aim, computational modeling of process characteristics suggests that both types of decisions are consistent with non-discounting models. In particular, results of search direction, in light of Bayesian model comparison, reveals that participants are more likely to follow the non-compensatory, attribute-based rule rather than the alternative-based/attribute-based rule when deciding for both RC and IC. Furthermore, different task constructs of decision options, i.e., with or without certain/immediate option, show distinct process characteristics, such as direction, complexity, and depth in both RC and IC.To conclude, the present study shows that although differences exist between RC and IC, they indeed have shared cognitive mechanisms at the core of the decision processes. In both types of decisions, contrary to classic discounting models, individuals seem not to follow compensatory, attribute-based rules, which undergoes a “weighting and summing” or “delay discounting” process. Instead, they are more likely to use simple heuristic rules hypothesized by non-discounting models. Moreover, when including certain or immediate options, individuals tend to follow less compensatory and non-dominant (neither attribute-based nor alternative-based) rules. In sum, our findings not only provide a theoretical and empirical basis for the establishment of a common framework for RC and IC, but also provide a novel direction for thorough theoretical and methodological comparisons between variant decision tasks.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： Humans are facing an unprecedented historical crisis and challenge. To identify the strategies that we can use to cope with historical crisis and challenge, we should investigate two well-studied strategies: “slow strategy, ” which is essentially an investment in the future, and “fast strategy” or “live fast, die young.” According to “The Ant and the Grasshopper, ” Aesop’s fable, which is under the pretext of intertemporal choice of social insects, the “slow” rather than the “fast” strategy is recommended for those who want to survive the environmental crisis. Intertemporal choice requires tradeoffs among outcomes whose effects occur at different times. In the commonly accepted language of intertemporal choice, the Ant, whose choice is the “larger but later” (LL) option, is more likely to survive the harsh winter than the Grasshopper, whose choice is the “smaller but sooner” (SS) option. To determine the optimal intertemporal choice strategy that can help us to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, we included 26, 355 participants from 18 Asian, African, European, American, and Oceanian countries in the present study. We investigated the participants’ preferences in intertemporal choice with double-dated mixed outcomes, evaluated the degree of change in their intertemporal choice by differentiating the common currency in peacetime and epidemic time (i.e., two kinds of change indicators used for differentiating currencies and stages, respectively). We then asked them to rate their self-rated surviving achievement in the fight against COVID-19. Considering that individuals’ surviving achievements were affected by individual- and religious-level factors, we analyzed all data by using multilevel linear analysis to reflect the data’s hierarchical structure. After considering individual differences in personal factors and religious factors, we constructed two-level models to explore the effects of the change in intertemporal choice on self-rated surviving achievement, and measured the moderating role of cultural orientation in terms of Hofstede’s six culture dimensions. The findings of the cross-national survey revealed that Change Indicator 1 (∆ currency) and Change Indicator 2 (∆ stage) of Chinese/Singaporeans could jointly predict their self-rated surviving achievement. Meanwhile, only Change Indicator 2 (∆ stage) alone could predict the self-rated surviving achievement of people in the cultural circle that included the India, Malaysia, Philippines, and Nigeria. Neither Change Indicator 1 (∆ currency) nor Change Indicator 2 (∆ stage) of the people in other cultures could significantly predict their self-rated surviving achievement. On the basis of the gist of The Book of Change and the resulting findings, we suggested that 1) how you differentially (flexibly) made an intertemporal choice in peacetime and epidemic time would reflect the extent to which you would survive the war against COVID-19. In addition, 2) the mindset of change might shape the competitive advantage of a nation, such as China, in response to the historical crisis. The closer the cultural distance of a country or nation from China, the greater the possibility of benefitting from a similar competitive advantage. It is our hope that our findings would contribute to answer the question of what are “Psychological Characteristics and Behaviors of Chinese People in Response to Historical Crisis?”
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： Mainstream theorists in risky decision-making have developed various expectation-maximization-based theories with the ambitious goal of capturing everyone’s choices. However, ample evidence has revealed that these theories could not capture every individual’s (“every one’s”) actual risky choice as descriptive theories. Substantial research has demonstrated that people do not follow the logical process suggested by expectation-maximization-based theories when making risky choices but rather rely on simplifying heuristics. From our perspective, the possible reason why mainstream decision theorists did not abandon the framework of expectation is that these theorists never doubted the validity of the expectation rule as a descriptive rule in describing decision-making under risk. We believe that expectation-maximization-based theories may capture risky choices when individuals make decisions for everyone. However, whether these theories could capture risky choices when individuals make decisions for themselves cannot be taken for granted. We thus used an eye-tracking technique to explore whether a theory for everyone would work well for every one. A total of 52 college students participated in the experiment. Three risky choice tasks were conducted in the present study: a D-everyone task, a D-multiple task, and a D-single task. In the D-everyone task, participants were asked to choose the more optimal option out of two options under the assumption that their selection would be the final decision for everyone who was facing the same choice—that is, everyone would be subject to the same choice but could receive different outcomes. In the D-multiple task, participants were asked to choose between the two options under the assumption that their selection would be applied a total of 100 times. In the D-single task, participants were asked to choose between the two options under the assumption that their selection would be applied only once to themselves. The participants’ eye movements were recorded while they performed the tasks. Behavioral results revealed that, compared with the D-single task, participants selected more choices correctly predicted by EV and EU theories, and took a longer time to make a decision in the D-everyone and D-multiple tasks. Furthermore, eye movement measurements revealed the following. (1) The scanpath patterns of the D-everyone task and D-multiple task were similar but different from those of the D-single task. (2) The depth of information acquisition and the level of complexity of information processing in the D-everyone task and D-multiple task was higher than that in the D-single task. (3) The direction of information search in the D-everyone task and D-multiple task was more alternative-based than that in the D-single task. (4) The eye-tracking measures mediated the relationship between the task and the EV-consistent choice. In summary, behavioral and eye movement results supported our hypotheses that participants were likely to follow an expectation strategy in the D-everyone and D-multiple tasks, whereas they were likely to follow a heuristic/non- expectation strategy in the D-single task. We found that expectation-maximization-based theories could capture the choice of an individual when making decisions for everyone and for self in a multiple-play condition but could not capture the choice of an individual when making decisions for self in a single-play condition. The evidence for the discrepancy between everyone and every one, which was first reported in our study, implied that the possible reason why expectation-maximization-based theories do not work is that a default compatibility between the full set (everyone) and the subset (every one) does not exist. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of the boundaries of expectation-maximization-based theories and those of heuristic/non-expectation models. Our findings may also shed light on the general issue of the classification of risky decision-making theories.
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2023-03-27 Cooperative journals: 《心理学报》
Abstract： The fundamental issue regarding the difference between humans and animals has puzzled researchers in a broad range of academic fields and specializations. The ability to trade, which symbolizes the progress of human civilization, may be regarded as an important distinction between humans and animals. To sustain a trading activity, people need to deal with the possible issues of long-distance delivery (spatial choice), delayed delivery (intertemporal choice), and unfulfilled delivery (risky choice) in the exchange of goods. These choices of different domains were well represented by the tangible (outcome) and intangible (probability/time/space) dimensions. Normally, the family of compensatory rules assumes that choice should be reached by comparing options which have been converted into the same units of quantity (Overall Payoff A vs. Overall Payoff B) in a way of “translating intangible elements into tangible ones” algorithm. Whereas, the family of non-compensatory rules assumes that choice should be reached by directly comparing values measured using different units of quantity (∆OutcomeA,B vs. ∆ProbabilityA,B/∆DelayA,B/∆SpaceA,B) in a way of “pitting intangible elements against tangible ones” rule. To test whether human beings have the potential to deal with the intangible dimensions of the data, the present paper attempts to obtain evidence to support the “pitting intangible elements against tangible ones” rules from a variety of decision tasks, which were formed by combing both tangible and intangible dimensions. Study 1 aims to examine whether outcome difference between options and the probability/time/space difference between options were directly compared in three choice domains by using the eye-tracking technique. Our findings show that, from the group-level, decision makers perform a consistent dimension-based search pattern in the three domains, indicating that the decision processes are more dependent on a way of intra-dimensional comparison. From the individual-level, the vast majority of participants were classified as decision makers who using dimension-based strategy. Moreover, the two index we constructed, difference in gaze duration and difference in saccades frequency, could significantly predict the behavioral choice shift. Those results provide supporting evidence for dimensioned-based strategy in three choice domains. However, Study 1 is still unable to answer the further question of whether the final decisions are reached through a process of comparing the eye movement information of ∆OutcomeA,B with ∆ProbabilityA,B/∆DelayA,B/ ∆SpaceA,B. Study 2 therefore borrows a Visual Analog Scale to further examine whether the ∆OutcomeA,B and ∆ProbabilityA,B/∆DelayA,B/∆SpaceA,B were treated in an equate-to-differentiate way in reaching the final decisions in three domains. Our findings indicate that the decisions can be made by the way of “intra-dimensional difference evaluation” prescribed by equate-to-differentiate theory. The current paper provides supportive evidence for the comparison rule of “pitting intangible elements against tangible ones” and break a new ground different from the “translating intangible elements into tangible ones” algorithm. Future studies may consider the development of a general model to explain the choices of three different domains.
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2023-01-02
Abstract：
The fundamental issue regarding the difference between humans and animals has puzzled researchers in a broad range of academic fields and specializations. The ability to trade, which symbolizes the progress of human civilization, may be regarded as an important distinction between humans and animals. To sustain a trading activity, people need to deal with the possible issues of long-distance delivery (spatial choice), delayed delivery (intertemporal choice), and unfulfilled delivery (risky choice) in the exchange of goods.
These choices of different domains were well represented by the tangible (outcome) and intangible (probability/time/space) dimensions. Normally, the family of compensatory rules assumes that choice should be reached by comparing options which have been converted into the same units of quantity (Overall Payoff A vs. Overall Payoff B) in a way of “translating intangible elements into tangible ones” algorithm. Whereas, the family of non-compensatory rules assumes that choice should be reached by directly comparing values measured using different units of quantity (?Outcome A, B vs. ?Probability A, B /?Delay A, B /?Space A, B) in a way of “pitting intangible elements against tangible ones” rule. To test whether human beings have the potential to deal with the intangible dimensions of the data, the present paper attempts to obtain evidence to support the “pitting intangible elements against tangible ones” rules from a variety of decision tasks, which were formed by combing both tangible and intangible dimensions.
Study 1 aims to examine whether outcome difference between options and the probability/time/space difference between options were directly compared in three choice domains by using the eye-tracking technique. Our findings show that, from the group-level, decision makers perform a consistent dimension-based search pattern in the three domains, indicating that the decision processes are more dependent on a way of intra-dimensional comparison. From the individual-level, the vast majority of participants were classified as decision makers who using dimension-based strategy. Moreover, the two index we constructed, difference in gaze duration and difference in saccades frequency, could significantly predict the behavioral choice shift. Those results provide supporting evidence for dimensioned-based strategy in three choice domains.
However, Study 1 is still unable to answer the further question of whether the final decisions are reached through a process of comparing the eye movement information of ?Outcome A,B with ?Probability A,B /?Delay A,B /?Space A,B . Study 2 therefore borrows a Visual Analog Scale to further examine whether the ?Outcome A,B and ?Probability A,B /?Delay A,B /?Space A,B were treated in an equate-to-differentiate way in reaching the final decisions in three domains. Our findings indicate that the decisions can be made by the way of “intra-dimensional difference evaluation” prescribed by equate-to-differentiate theory.
The current paper provides supportive evidence for the comparison rule of “pitting intangible elements against tangible ones” and break a new ground different from the “translating intangible elements into tangible ones” algorithm. Future studies may consider the development of a general model to explain the choices of three different domains.
Peer Review Status:
Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2022-07-29
Abstract： Mainstream theorists in risky decision-making have developed various expectation theories with the ambitious goal of capturing everyone’s choices. However, ample evidence has revealed that these expectation theories could not capture every individual’s (“every one’s”) actual risky choice as descriptive theories. With doubts about the default compatibility between everyone (full set) and every one (subset), we used an eye-tracking technique to explore whether a theory for everyone would work well for every one. We found that expectation theories could capture the choice of an individual when making decisions for everyone and for self in a multiple-play condition, but could not capture the choice of an individual when making decisions for self in a single-play condition. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the boundaries of expectation theories and those of heuristic/non-expectation models, and may shed light on the general issue of the classification of risky decision-making theories.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2022-07-25
Abstract：
Mainstream theorists in risky decision-making have developed various expectation-maximization-based theories with the ambitious goal of capturing everyone’s choices. However, ample evidence has revealed that these theories could not capture every individual’s (“every one’s”) actual risky choice as descriptive theories. Substantial research has demonstrated that people do not follow the logical process suggested by expectation-maximization-based theories when making risky choices but rather rely on simplifying heuristics. From our perspective, the possible reason why mainstream decision theorists did not abandon the framework of expectation is that these theorists never doubted the validity of the expectation rule as a descriptive rule in describing decision-making under risk. We believe that expectation-maximization-based theories may capture risky choices when individuals make decisions for everyone. However, whether these theories could capture risky choices when individuals make decisions for themselves cannot be taken for granted. We thus used an eye-tracking technique to explore whether a theory for everyone would work well for every one.
A total of 52 college students participated in the experiment. Three risky choice tasks were conducted in the present study: a D-everyone task, a D-multiple task, and a D-single task. In the D-everyone task, participants were asked to choose the more optimal option out of two options under the assumption that their selection would be the final decision for everyone who was facing the same choice—that is, everyone would be subject to the same choice but could receive different outcomes. In the D-multiple task, participants were asked to choose between the two options under the assumption that their selection would be applied a total of 100 times. In the D-single task, participants were asked to choose between the two options under the assumption that their selection would be applied only once to themselves. The participants’ eye movements were recorded while they performed the tasks.
Behavioral results revealed that, compared with the D-single task, participants selected more choices correctly predicted by EV and EU theories, and took a longer time to make a decision in the D-everyone and D-multiple tasks. Furthermore, eye movement measurements revealed the following. (1) The scanpath patterns of the D-everyone task and D-multiple task were similar but different from those of the D-single task. (2) The depth of information acquisition and the level of complexity of information processing in the D-everyone task and D-multiple task was higher than that in the D-single task. (3) The direction of information search in the D-everyone task and D-multiple task was more alternative-based than that in the D-single task. (4) The eye-tracking measures mediated the relationship between the task and the EV-consistent choice. In summary, behavioral and eye movement results supported our hypotheses that participants were likely to follow an expectation strategy in the D-everyone and D-multiple tasks, whereas they were likely to follow a heuristic/non-expectation strategy in the D-single task.We found that expectation-maximization-based theories could capture the choice of an individual when making decisions for everyone and for self in a multiple-play condition but could not capture the choice of an individual when making decisions for self in a single-play condition. The evidence for the discrepancy between everyone and every one, which was first reported in our study, implied that the possible reason why expectation-maximization-based theories do not work is that a default compatibility between the full set (everyone) and the subset (every one) does not exist. Our findings contribute to an improved understanding of the boundaries of expectation-maximization-based theories and those of heuristic/non-expectation models. Our findings may also shed light on the general issue of the classification of risky decision-making theories.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2021-11-22
Abstract： Default–based nudge has been increasingly used in recent years to improve the public approval of social policies. However, its effectiveness has also been questioned by the public and some scholars. A meta-analysis was conducted to explore the effect of default options and the related variables that may affect its effectiveness. A total of 56 empirical research and 92 studies were included through literature retrieval. Results of the meta-analysis are as follows: (1) A considerable effect of default options was observed, (2) The moderating analysis of cultural background revealed that the nudging effect of default options under Western culture was better than that under Eastern culture, and (3) Lastly, the moderating analysis showed a significant difference of default effect between different domains and that the nudging effect of default options was greater in the money–related domain than in the health and environmental domains.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2021-09-24
Abstract： [Objective] Measuring people’s attitude towards COVID-19 vaccination is relatively distinctive from an attitude over a general conflict. [Methods] An online survey of 3123 respondents from China’s 30 provinces and municipalities (except Tibet Autonomous Region) was conducted from January 22 to 27, 2021 to measure their willingness to be vaccinated. [Results] Over half of the respondents chose the options ‘not to be vaccinated now’ and ‘wait and see before making a vaccination decision’, thereby indicating that people’s willingness to be vaccinated is not as optimistic as anticipated in the early stage of vaccination in China. [Conclusions] Researchers should carefully choose survey methods to investigate people's real willingness to vaccination. It is suggested that relevant departments should fully anticipate and prepare for people's "vaccination hesitation" " "
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2021-03-25
Abstract： " " " " " " " " "
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology submitted time 2021-01-05
Abstract： Decisions can be remarkably influenced by how the option is framed and elicited. However, as a special variant of the elicited method, the potential value and application of selection and rejection has been underestimated by researchers. The discrepancies between selection and rejection can be represented in five aspects, such as cognitive effort, attention, decision criteria, et al. Over the past 30 years, we have gradually developed enrichment paradigm, phased narrowing technique and direct inquiry methods as a research tool, and explored some relatively mature theoretical hypothesis such as compatibility compatibility principle, commitment hypothesis and accentuation hypothesis, to illustrate the inherent mechanism of the difference between the selection and rejection response modes. Meanwhile, the selection and rejection response model has played a real driving role in consumer behavior, health care and other areas. Future studies may consider the application value and promotion practice of selecting and rejecting reaction modes as a tool of nudging. Our work attempts to shed light on the knowledge of selection and rejection as well as showing new applications for future research. "
Subjects: Psychology >> Applied Psychology Subjects: Safety Science and Technology >> Public Safety submitted time 2020-07-14
Abstract： Terrorist attacks can occur anywhere. As the threat of terrorism develops, the China–Eurasia Expo held in Urumqi, China, is attracting fewer potential visitors. A nationwide survey of 2034 residents from 31 provinces/municipalities in China was conducted to examine the relation between the distance to respondents’ city of residence from Urumqi and their levels of concern for safety and security concerning the expo. The two were found to be positively related: the closer the respondents lived to ?rümqi, the less concerned they were with the safety and security of the expo. This is consistent with the ‘psychological typhoon eye’ effect, which states that people living closer to the centre of an unfortunate event (whether natural or man-made hazards) are less concerned with the event’s negative consequences. This effect appears to hold for terrorism. There are implications of this finding for international counter-terrorism practice, tourism, and research.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
Subjects: Psychology >> Management Psychology Subjects: Psychology >> Social Psychology submitted time 2020-06-23
Abstract： According to the positive temporal discounting theory and our relevant observations, when faced with future losses, people should, and do, prefer delayed negative events (e.g., deferring paying taxes, debts, or tickets), which can lead to substantial individual and societal costs. However, a counterexample has been identified and it appears to depart from the prediction of positive temporal discounting when faced with negative events. This study proposed and investigated the novel free from care account for the reverse preference. Results of five laboratory and field studies showed that students preferred an immediate negative event (i.e., an English oral exam) when “something tying one up”was imposed, in which coping with a distraction induced by such a situation could play a mediating role. In particular, the addition of“something tying one up” was found to be an effective behavioral nudge in terms of reliability and reproducibility and should be simple for potential users to follow. Specifically, the association between being tied up and undergoing a negative event immediately in the present studies mirrored the association between outgroup threat and intergroup cooperation in the Robbers Cave experiment.
Peer Review Status:Awaiting Review
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